An outdated infrastructure and fuel shortages have again caused severe power blackouts in Cuba, embodying the crisis deeply rooted in the troubled economy. The situation, already critical in recent years, has deteriorated further during hurricane season — Hurricane Oscar just dumped heavy rain — and showcased the island’s reliance on oil imports.
Crumbling Energy Infrastructure
Cuba’s power grid relies on eight aging thermoelectric plants, some nearly 50 years old, and have received little maintenance over the past decade. These plants burn crude oil, but much of Cuba’s crude oil is of poor quality and high in sulfur and metals, which damages the combustion process and requires constant repairs.
The country also leased several Turkish power-plant ships to supplement its electricity needs, providing up to 20% of the nation's power. However, these ships, too, rely on fuel, and Cuba’s dwindling reserves mean they are no longer a viable solution.
The IEA reported that, per its latest known data, Cuba generated 83% of its electricity using petroleum derivatives in 2022, with renewable energy sources contributing less than 5%.
Cuba produces around 40,000 barrels of fuel daily but consumes approximately 120,000 barrels. This deficit used to be covered by Venezuelan oil imports, with some assistance from Mexico and Russia. Unfortunately, these imports have declined sharply in recent years.
Venezuela's oil shipments to Cuba, once a lifeline, have now fallen to a third of previous levels, while Mexico's and Russia's contributions are inconsistent at best.
Economy Dips, Emigration Rises
The blackouts are symptomatic of a much deeper economic crisis as Cuba's GDP contracted by 1.9% in 2023, and forecasts for 2024 predict only a modest 0.5% growth.
In response, citizens have been leaving the country in record numbers. Per Miami Herald, between 2022 and 2023, over one million people — about 10% of the population — migrated, mainly to the U.S. This period marks the largest migration wave in Cuban history, driving the population down to around 10 million by conservative estimates.
The Cuban diaspora strengthened the American Latino population, which, according to Politico, will have around 36.2 million voters this year, up to 32.3 million in 2020. Both candidates have watched this demographic closely, as its relatively young population (31% under 30, according to Pew Research) creates a reliable voting base for either party.
Yet, while the U.S. immigrants are relatively young, Cubans are getting old. Birth rates are low, with only 284,000 children born between 2022 and 2023, while the number of deaths reached over 400,000. The combination of mass emigration and a declining birth rate has created a demographic time bomb.
Unless something radically changes to stabilize its socio-economic system, the nation's long-term prospects are somber. For those on the island, enveloping darkness might symbolize more than just a power outage.
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