While opinion polls predict a close race between Democratic nominee Kamala Harris and Republican nominee Donald Trump, billionaire investor and former hedge fund manager Stanley Druckenmiller, the chairman and CEO of Duquesne Family Office, on Thursday weighed in with his thoughts on the 2024 presidential election.
What Markets Say: While stating that things are still fluid, Druckenmiller said he liked the market indicators for the elections. In an interview with Bloomberg, the billionaire said in 1980, the market was right on former President Ronald Reagan despite what the pundits said.
“And I must say in the last 12 days, the market and the inside of the market is very convinced Trump is going to win. You can see it in the bank stocks, you can see it in crypto, you can even see it in Trump Media & Technology Group Corp. (NYSE:DJT), his social media company,” he said.
Industries that benefit from deregulation will benefit from a Trump victory and outperform others, Druckenmiller said.
Trump is the favorite to win the election now, the billionaire said, adding that the polls do not mean much nowadays as no one even responds to them anymore.
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The Scenarios: Druckenmiller weighed in four scenarios, namely a blue sweep, a red sweep, the Trump administration with a blue branch of Congress, and a Harris administration with a red branch of Congress.
A blue sweep is extremely unlikely, the billionaire said, adding that even if Harris wins the presidency looking at state-by-state polls, it looks like the Republicans are going to win the Senate.
Where you got a blue sweep, you would have a rough time for equities for three to six months, Druckenmiller said. This will translate into the economy because equity ownership is 25% of financial assets, an all-time high, he added.
“So that’s a blue sweep. But the good news or the bad news, depending on how you view life is, I think it’s highly unlikely,” the ex-hedge fund manager said.
A red sweep is probably more likely than a Trump presidency with a blue Congress, he said. This is because anybody who votes for Trump is probably not going to switch their allegiance, he added.
“A red sweep, I think you get animal spirits in the business community. You get deregulation and there might be some sort of uplift relative to where they were in terms of the business community,” Druckenmiller said. So I think the economy could be potentially stronger for three to six months, he said.
The only fear is because the bond yields do not reflect a proper economic outlook, there could be a bad response from the fixed-income markets, which could then snuff out the equity rally, the billionaire said. He also thinks the Federal Reserve will be more hawkish under a Trump administration and red Congress.
On the contrary, under a Harris administration with a Republican Congress, probably not a lot of change from the landscape that is currently in place is expected, he said.
Trump Vs. Harris: Regarding his personal preference, Druckenmiller said he hasn’t decided who he would vote for. “I can’t see my voting self voting for either one of them,” he said, adding that they are actually unified on some things like industrial policy.
“Both of them think apparently the government should have a major role in allocating capital, which I find frankly…. bizarre,” Druckenmiller said. Both have adopted industrial policy, kind of throwing free-market Reagan capitalism to the side and so their policies are equally bad, with Harris’ much worse in terms it being anti-business, he added.
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