The Last Time Gold Flashed This Warning Sign, the Market Dropped 80%

Both President Trump and Elon Musk are warning about something that could send the market down 50%, real estate down 40% and savings accounts down 30%.

Germany's economy is in the dumps. Here are 5 reasons why

DAVID McHUGH
February 17, 2025

FRANKFURT, Germany (AP) -- Germany hasn't seen significant economic growth in five years. It's a stunning turnaround for Europe's biggest economy, which for much of this century had expanded exports and dominated world trade in engineered products like industrial machinery and luxury cars.

So what happened?

Here are five reasons for Germany's ongoing economic slump:

Energy shock from Russia

Moscow's decision to cut off natural gas supplies to Germany in the wake of Russia's invasion of Ukraine dealt a severe blow. For years, Germany's business model was based on cheap energy fueling production of industrial goods for export.

In 2011, then-Chancellor Angela Merkel decided to hasten the end of nuclear power use in Germany while relying on gas from Russia to bridge the gap as the country moved away from coal generation and toward renewable energy. Russia was then considered to be a reliable energy partner; warnings to the contrary from Poland and the United States were dismissed.

When Russia discontinued the flow, prices in Germany skyrocketed for gas and for electricity generated from gas, both key costs for energy-intensive industries such as steel, fertilizer, chemicals and glass. Germany had to turn to liquefied natural gas, or LNG, super-cooled and imported by ship from Qatar and the U.S. LNG costs more than pipeline gas.

Electricity now costs industrial users in Germany an average of 20.3 euro cents per kilowatt hour, according to a study the research firm Prognos AG prepared for the Bavarian Industry Association. In the U.S. and China, where many competitors of German companies are located, the cost is the equivalent of 8.4 euro cents.

Renewable sources of energy haven't scaled up fast enough to fill the gap. Homeowner and regional resistance to turbines slowed wind energy growth. Infrastructure to transport hydrogen as a replacement fuel for steel furnaces remains mostly on the drawing board.

China: From customer to competitor

For years, Germany benefited from China's entry into the global economy - even as other developed countries lost jobs to China. German companies found a massive new market for industrial machinery, chemicals and vehicles. Through the early and mid 2010s, Mercedes-Benz, Volkswagen and BMW reaped fat profits selling into what became the world's largest car market.

At the time, Chinese companies produced items like furniture and consumer electronics that didn't compete with Germany's core strengths. Then, manufacturers in China started making the same things that Germans did.

State-subsidized Chinese solar panels wiped out Germany's makers. In 2010, Chinese panel makers depended on imported German equipment; today, global solar panel production relies on equipment from China. The government in Beijing has ramped up efforts to promote and subsidize manufacturing for export. The resulting goods -- steel, machinery, solar panels, electric vehicles and EV batteries -- now compete with German goods on export markets.

Germany, the most auto-centric of the European Union economies, had the most to lose from China's export-oriented industrial policy. In 2020, China was not a net exporter of vehicles; by 2024, it was exporting 5 million a year. Germany's net exports fell by half over the same period, to 1.2 million cars. Chinese factory capacity is estimated at 50 million vehicles a year, roughly half of global demand.

Skimping on investment

Germany grew complacent during the good times and put off investing in long-term projects such as rail lines and high-speed internet. The government balanced its budget and sometimes ran surpluses off the tax revenue from a booming economy.

These days, German commuters shake their heads at trains that don't run on time and constant service disruptions while repairs are made to worn-out tracks. High speed internet hasn't yet reached some rural areas. A transmission line to bring electricity from Germany's windy north to factories in the south has run years behind and won't be ready before 2028. A key bridge on the highway connecting the industrial Ruhr region with southern Germany had to be closed in 2021, 10 years after doubts about its durability emerged. A replacement won't be ready before 2027.

A 2009 constitutional amendment handcuffed the government by limiting deficit spending. Whether to loosen the so-called debt brake will be a thorny issue for the German government installed after the country's Feb. 23 election.

Lack of skilled workers

German companies are having trouble finding workers with the right skills, from highly trained IT workers to daycare providers, senior care workers and hotel staff members. In a German Chamber of Commerce and Industry survey of 23,000 firms, 43% of companies said they couldn't fill open positions. The response rose to 58% for companies with more than 1,000 workers.

Fewer German students are interested in STEM fields, meaning science, technology, engineering and mathematics. An aging population compounds the problem, as does a shortage of affordable child care that keeps many women working part-time or not at all. Bureaucratic hurdles pose an obstacle to employing high-skill immigrants, though a law passed in 2020 and strengthened in 2023 aims to ease the process.

Bureaucracy

Lengthy approval procedures and too much paperwork are a drag on the economy, according to Germany companies and economists. Securing a construction permit for a wind turbine can take years. A few other examples, among dozens raised by German business groups:

-- Companies installing solar panels need to register with both government regulators and their local utility even though the utility could pass on the information to the government level.

-- Restaurants have to log refrigerator temperatures by hand and keep hard copies of the records for a month even if the data has been stored digitally.

-- A law requiring companies to certify that their suppliers are obeying environmental and labor standards went beyond EU requirements, putting a heavier burden on German companies than their European competitors.

Continue Reading...

Popular

Maryland governor announces budget framework deal with taxes, cuts

ANNAPOLIS, Md. (AP) — Maryland Gov. Wes Moore announced an agreement on a state budget framework with the state's Democratic leadership Thursday, criticizing President Donald Trump's tariffs and dramatic downsizing of the federal government while announcing tax increases and cuts to address a $3.3 billion state deficit for the next fiscal year.

Exposed: 3 Cent Crypto to Explode March 24th? - Ad

Chris Rowe, the man who spotted 44 different coins that have returned over 100%, is now making the biggest crypto call of his ENTIRE career.... Because a powerful crypto event will trigger on March 24th... Sending hundreds of tiny cryptos soaring 5X, 50X, even 100X -- in just days.

US agency for African development will ask court to prevent its closure

WASHINGTON (AP) — A small U.S. federal agency that invests in African small businesses is expected in court on Tuesday to fight for control over its operations and existence.

What makes Greenland a strategic prize at a time of rising tensions? And why now?

NUUK, Greenland (AP) — When U.S. President Donald Trump first suggested in 2019, people thought it was just a joke. No one is laughing now.

Crypto Does WHAT to Retirement Accounts? - Ad

If you're thinking about retirement... THIS is what crypto does to retirement accounts. Best-selling author and hedge fund manager James Altucher reveals the details.

Zscaler Faces Bearish Pressure Before Q2: Can Earnings Spark A Reversal?

Zscaler reports Q2 earnings on Wednesday with EPS of 69 cents and revenue of $635.56 million, lower than last year.

"I Thought We Had More Time..." - Ad

I've spent 44 years on Wall Street. I'm deep inside the upper echelon of technology and finance... managing billions of dollars for some of the wealthiest people in this country. I've seen what comes next for AI. And frankly... It terrifies me.

Minnesota considers blocking 'nudify' apps that use AI to make explicit images without consent

ST. PAUL, Minn. (AP) — Molly Kelly was stunned to discover in June that someone she knew had used widely available to create highly realistic and sexually explicit videos and images of her, using family photos that were posted on social media.

Liverpool switches back to Adidas from Nike for next season

LIVERPOOL, England (AP) — Premier League leader is reuniting with Adidas as its uniform supplier for the first time in 13 years, starting from next season.

A Radical New AI Development - Ad

According to this billion-dollar fund manager, AI is way more advanced than most people realize... Thanks to a radical new development, folks who aren't positioned correctly are about to get blindsided.

AT&T Confirms 2025 Targets, Cash Flow Strength And Debt Reduction Plan: Details

AT&T reaffirms 2025 financial targets, plans to execute long-term strategic plan. Expects strong first quarter of 2025, maintains dividend.

DOGE's Next Target Set To Hand 401K Savers A Windfall? - Ad

Musk's Department of Government Efficiency has already uncovered $55B in waste--and Trump's backing his plan to return $2T in savings to taxpayers. But why wait? Unlock a legal Trump IRS loophole to protect & grow your wealth NOW!

Palantir Cofounder Peter Thiel Might Write A Book About Ancient Prophecies, The Antichrist, And Armageddon - He Thinks We're Ignoring The Real Threat

Billionaire tech investor Peter Thiel is exploring a book on ancient prophecies, the Antichrist, and Armageddon, warning that society is ignoring the threat of a one-world government—a concern he believes demands urgent attention.

China is ending its annual Congress with questions open over how to revive its slowing economy

BEIJING (AP) — China is wrapping up its biggest political event of the year on Tuesday leaving one question unanswered: How far will it go to try to revive economic growth in 2025?

Trump's Final Betrayal - Ad

Exposed: the shocking economic plot to "reset" the U.S. economy and redistribute trillions of dollars in wealth.

Tesla Out, Ford In: City Of Baltimore Goes 'In A Different Direction' Reversing EV Deal From 2024

Tesla is losing an EV city fleet deal in Baltimore to Ford. A look at what happened and how politics may have factored into the decision.

Tesla tumbles again as investors bail on Elon Musk's suddenly struggling electric vehicle company

Shares of Tesla are sliding again Monday as confidence in Elon Musk's electric car company continues to disintegrate following a post-election “Trump bump.”

Wall St. Icon: Looming Financial Tsunami Could Wipe Out the 1% - Ad

Wall Street legend confesses, "I feel a sense of duty to share what I know with as many people as I can... that's why I made this free for all to view."

Oracle's Q3 Falls Short, But AI Demand Keep Long-Term Outlook Strong Say Analysts

Oracle shares are down after disappointing Q3 results. Analysts maintain ratings, but lower price targets and highlight strong AI growth.

Cathie Wood-Led Ark Invest Roblox, Roku, UiPath As Markets Take A Dip

Ark Invest made significant trades on Friday, selling shares of RBLX, ROKU, PATH and buying shares of IBTA, PSNL, ABSI, and RXRX.

Forget "DOGE." Here's What Elon Is Really Planning - Ad

While the world watches Musk & Trump, his REAL plan is unfolding inside a Memphis warehouse. Even Nvidia's CEO is eyeing it. This could mint fortunes--if you move fast. Get the details before it's too late!

Universities are facing big cuts to research funding. At Duke, it's a time for 'damage control'

DURHAM, N.C. (AP) — Facing the potential loss of hundreds of millions of dollars in federal funding, Duke University is preparing for the worst.

Apple Supplier Foxconn Unveils AI Model Using Nvidia Tech

Foxconn built AI model FoxBrain in 4 weeks with reasoning capabilities, aiming to advance manufacturing and supply chain management.

Globetrotting CFA Discovers Top Four Gold Miners With 100X Upside Potential - Ad

Most CFAs sit at a desk... But one unusual CFA went all-in on gold investing 20 years ago... and accidentally positioned himself as the expert's expert for the current bull market. Garrett Goggin's research has led him to the the Top Four miners sitting on potential upside of 100X or more for the current gold mania. He's been offered as much as $100k by Hedge Funds.

Claim the "No.1 Coin of 2025" Before March 24th - Ad

After spotting 44 different coins that have returned over 100%...Chris Rowe is now exposing the details behind the "Superpower Coin"... that's partnered with 19 of the largest companies from some of the world's largest superpower nations... A little-known 3-cent coin that is poised to outperform Bitcoin in 2025... starting on March 24th.

Kenya-based content moderators mourn Nigerian colleague who 'was desperate to go home'

NAIROBI, Kenya (AP) — Technology workers in Kenya held a vigil Tuesday for a colleague who died in unclear circumstances after she was unable to travel to her home in Nigeria for two years.

AOC Claps Back At Mike Johnson As Senate Moves Closer To Government Shutdown: 'If You Need Democrats, Then You Need To Negotiate'

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez pushed back on Speaker Mike Johnson's blame for a possible shutdown, reminding him that Republicans control the government and must negotiate if they lack the votes.

Elon Musk Drops Stunning Bombshell? - Ad

Behind closed doors, Musk revealed a game-changing breakthrough that could shake the tech world & crush major companies. Why is no one talking about it? Luckily, we had a man on the inside - watch now to see the leaked details & how to profit!

Jury reaches verdict in trial of pipeline company's lawsuit against Greenpeace, spokesperson says

MANDAN, N.D. (AP) — A North Dakota jury reached a verdict on Monday in the accusing the environmental advocacy group Greenpeace of defamation and disrupting the Dakota Access Pipeline project, according to a Greenpeace spokesperson.

How to roll over an old 401(k)

Old are a little like the old clothes in the back of your closet. You know you should do something about them, but there they sit, mostly out of sight and mind.

Trump's Next Move - Ad

First it was MAGA, then MAHA, now MARA. New video reveals what Trump's greatest plan yet. Presidential insider exposes shocking plot to reshape U.S. economy.

Tom Lee Sees Stocks Potentially Hitting First-Half Lows This Week: 'Bad News Has Gotten Priced In'

Tom Lee, Head of Research at Fundstrat Global Advisors, believes U.S. equities could be approaching their lowest levels for the first half of 2025, suggesting the recent market turbulence may represent a buying opportunity despite ongoing concerns.

Main takeaways from China's parliamentary session kick-off

BEIJING (AP) — China on Wednesday kicked off its annual parliamentary session, the National People’s Congress, which for the year. Stabilizing the sluggish economy and pushing for broader applications of artificial intelligence were among the focus areas in a work report read by the country’s premier, Li Qiang.

Warren Buffett Is Making a Huge Bet on Oil Buying Occidental Petroleum Stock - Ad

I like the move, but I hate the dividend...Occidental only pays a 1.3% dividend. That's why I prefer this oil ETF that has a 21% payout...Delivered to you every single month.

Hackers Expose Customer Data - Retail Pharmacy Giant Paying $6.8M in Compensation

Retail pharmacy giant Rite Aid has agreed to pay $6.8 million to its customers following a significant data breach.

Trending Now

Information, charts or examples are for illustration and educational purposes only and not for individualized investment management This message contains commercial elements, such as advertising. We only send these offers to those who have opted in to our newsletter. Past performance is not indicative of future results. For these reasons we strongly suggest trading in a DEMO/Simulated account. The information provided by us is for educational and informational purposes only. We make no representations or warranties concerning the products, practices or procedures of any company or entity mentioned or recommended and have not determined if the statements and opinions of the advertiser are accurate, correct or truthful. If you use, act upon or make decisions in reliance on information contained or any external source linked within it, you do so at your own peril and agree to hold us, our officers, directors, shareholders, affiliates and agents without fault.

Copyright systemtrading.ca
Privacy Policy | Terms of Service