TKO Group Holdings (NYSE:TKO), the leading combat sports entertainment platform, continues to benefit from incremental media rights deals, additional UFC and WWE events internationally, and rising site fees tied to premium events, which together support its growth outlook.
BTIG named TKO Group a Top Pick as it revisited its unit economics analysis with updated third-quarter UFC gate receipts data and initial results from the company’s first core boxing event.
Analysts led by Tyler DiMatteo maintained their Buy rating and $235 price forecast, citing a bull-bear valuation range of $132–$287 per share based on a sum-of-the-parts EV/EBITDA model.
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The firm said UFC gate receipts totaled about $31 million in the third quarter of 2025 across ten fights, down from $40 million in the year-ago period, in line with expectations due to a tough comparison against a record-breaking Sphere (SPHR) event in Las Vegas last year.
BTIG noted that premium numbered events in the quarter generated $8–$11 million each, while fight night events averaged $2-$3 million, with average ticket prices ranging from $130 to $275. The analysts expect the fourth quarter 2025 gate receipts to improve sequentially.
The firm said TKO’s first major boxing event, Canelo vs. Crawford, held in September, performed in line with projections, generating roughly $47 million in gate receipts at an average ticket price of $670. The event drew about 41.4 million global livestream viewers on Netflix, Inc. (NASDAQ: NFLX), underscoring strong global interest.
BTIG highlighted that TKO recently signed a long-term media rights deal with Paramount Skydance Corporation (NASDAQ:PSKY) to stream 12 annual Zuffa Boxing events starting in January 2026 across the U.S., Canada, and Latin America. The agreement follows a prior $7.7 billion, seven-year deal between the two companies for UFC’s U.S. domestic rights announced in August.
BTIG revisited the UFC’s core unit economics, estimating the business will generate approximately $35 million in net profit per fight in 2025, which translates to $20 million in EBITDA. Media rights account for roughly 60% of UFC event revenue, or about $22 million per fight, serving as a key source of steady cash flow.
Analysts noted that the partnerships and marketing contribute around $7 million per fight, while live events and hospitality generate about $6 million. The firm sees potential upside in partnership and marketing revenue, which could rise 25% year over year in 2025.
The new Paramount Skydance UFC rights deal implies media rights revenue of about $26 million per fight based on average annual contract value.
BTIG’s assumptions for the company include UFC revenue growth of 25-37% in 2026 with EBITDA margins between 57% and 60.5%, alongside continued gains across WWE and IMG segments.
The analysts maintained their financial estimates for TKO, projecting fiscal 2025 revenue of $4.69 billion and fiscal 2026 revenue of $6.01 billion, reflecting robust growth driven by new media rights agreements and expanding global events. Adjusted EBITDA is expected to rise from $1.56 billion in fiscal 2025 to $2.30 billion in fiscal 2026.
The analysts highlighted that TKO remains the leading combat sports entertainment platform with strong pricing power and industry‑leading margins supported by a loyal fan base. The analyst added that the rising value of global sports media rights should further boost TKO’s growth as it pursues new international deals.
Price Action: TKO shares were trading higher by 1.80% to $189.83 at last check Friday.
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