Gold is on track for its second-best performance in the last 50 years, trailing only the 1979 rally. After nearly three quarters, the yellow metal is up over 43%, as investors hedge against geopolitical and monetary risks.
“If we really go to an overt fiscally dominant era where monetary policy is just looser than it otherwise should be, then you get the dollar losing some of its reserve status and then gold and bitcoin are on the other side of that trade,” Jurrien Timmer, Director of Global Macro at Fidelity Investments, said for Bloomberg TV.
Yet, despite these risks and the metal’s evident success, institutional allocations remain low. The latest Global Fund Manager Survey, conducted by Bank of America, polled 165 allocators overseeing $426 billion. The data, collected in the second week of September, showed that fund managers remain heavily concentrated in equities, particularly in technology, while gold exposure accounts for just 2.4%.
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Some 39% of respondents reported zero exposure, while only 6% have allocations of 8% or more. By contrast, equity allocations are at their highest level since February, with a net 28% overweight position. Technology stocks dominate positioning, while long gold also ranks as one of the most crowded trades.
Gold is not the only overlooked asset. Cryptocurrencies are notably absent from institutional portfolios, as two-thirds of respondents reported no allocation at all. Those who are exposed maintain small positions, averaging under 1% of their assets.
Risk perception helps explain this reluctance. Results show that 26% of respondents view a second wave of inflation as the most significant tail risk. Another 24% cited concerns over central bank independence and the potential debasement of the US dollar.
By comparison, fears of a trade war have fallen sharply. Only 12% now rank trade tensions as their primary concern, down from 29% in August. The focus has shifted away from external shocks toward worries over monetary credibility.
Official sector demand also slowed during the summer. According to the World Gold Council, central bank purchases were neutral in July as an Indonesian sale offset buying elsewhere. This pause was notable after three years of record accumulation, where central banks added over 1,000 tons annually.
China remains a notable exception, as imports of non-monetary gold stay well above the five-year average. Beijing’s strategy is to diversify reserves and reduce reliance on the US dollar. This steady flow ensures that, even as institutional allocations lag, the structural support for gold remains intact.
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