The cobalt export suspension from the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) will expire on October 15. The restriction, imposed in February, extended in June and again on Sunday, had a profound impact on the market price of battery metal, which recovered over 60% since February.

Per Bloomberg's report, the officials in Kinshasa will replace the blanket ban with a quota-based system aimed at curbing oversupply without halting shipments entirely. The new system will launch on October 16, with miners shipping a maximum of 18,000 tons this year, and 96,600 tons in each 2026 and 2027. For comparison, the country produced nearly 220,000 tons in 2024.

Congo, which supplies more than 70% of the world's cobalt and 80% of total refined output, introduced the ban after prices fell to a nine-year low near $10 per pound early in 2025. Oversupply from copper-cobalt mines, most of which are operated by Chinese companies, has driven global inventories higher. At the same time, weaker demand from electric vehicle (EV) manufacturers has further weighed on sentiment.

Since the restrictions, cobalt prices have rebounded sharply. On COMEX, cobalt last traded at around $16 per pound. In China, cobalt sulphate entering the EV supply chain averaged $6,947 per ton in August, more than 90% higher than at the start of the year, though still well below the $19,000 peak reached in 2022.

According to Adamas Intelligence, the value of cobalt deployed in EV batteries rose to $180 million in August, the highest since late 2022. Average cobalt content value per vehicle climbed back above $70, nearly double January levels.

The DRC's export strategy has drawn international scrutiny. The Mines Ministry is seeking to finalize quotas that would allocate exports among producers, but talks remain difficult. Per Reuters, Glencore (OTCPK: GLNCY), the second-largest producer, supports a quota system, while CMOC (OTCPK: CMCLF), the top producer, favors a full lifting of restrictions. The political situation is further complicated by an ongoing conflict in eastern Congo, where authorities argue illegal mining is helping fund rebel groups.

Meanwhile, both Washington and Beijing have been quietly stockpiling. China increased reserves earlier this year, while the US Department of Defense issued its first tender since 1990 to secure 7,500 tons over five years.

For Washington, the focus is also on diversification. The US is seeking to avoid reliance on a single producer country, even one as resource-rich as Congo.

Last week, the US Trade and Development Agency awarded funding to Metalex Africa Zambia, a subsidiary of Texas-based Metalex Commodities, to carry out a feasibility study for the expansion of the Kazozu copper-cobalt mine. The study could pave the way for producing an additional 25,000 tons of copper and cobalt concentrates annually.

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