After more than a year of tight lending and high borrowing costs, there are some early signs that access to credit might be loosening. For investors watching consumer resilience, this could offer a small but notable shift in the broader economic picture. Mortgage refinancing, in particular, saw a big move last month, giving potential borrowers a reason to reengage.

Rejection rates dropped to 15% in June, down from 42% in February. That February figure was the highest on record going back to 2013. Auto loan rejections were also down, falling to 7% in June from 14% earlier in the year.

A Look at Consumer Expectations

The data comes from the Fed's Survey of Consumer Expectations, which tracks how households feel about credit access, inflation, and their financial outlook. Fewer people reported holding back from applying for credit because they expected to be turned down. That share, often referred to as discouraged borrowers, dropped from 8.5% in February to 7.2% in June.

At the same time, people said they'd be more likely to face a surprise $2,000 expense, but also felt more capable of covering it. Overall debt burdens remain a concern in other parts of the Fed's data, but consumer financial conditions still look relatively stable, especially given the impact of elevated interest rates.

While it’s too soon to call this a trend, the June survey offers a snapshot of slightly easier credit conditions that investors watching household spending may want to track.

How this plays out over the next few months will depend on a mix of consumer behavior, lender confidence, and broader economic signals. Credit conditions often shift gradually, and even small changes can influence how people spend, save, or borrow. For now, the latest data suggests a subtle shift worth monitoring.

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