Bernstein has initiated coverage on Circle Internet Group (NYSE:CRCL) with an Outperform rating and a price target of $230, highlighting the company’s growing leadership in the stablecoin sector.

What Happened: Bernstein analysts expect Circle's USD Coin (CRYPTO: USDC) to play a central role in the future of internet-scale payments.

The firm projects the total stablecoin market could grow from approximately $225 billion today to $4 trillion over the next decade, with Circle expected to capture a significant share, driven by its regulatory edge, liquidity lead, and strong distribution partnerships.

The analysts described Circle as a “must-hold” stock for investors looking to participate in the evolution of digital dollar networks beyond crypto trading, positioning it as a potential backbone of internet financial infrastructure.

Bernstein's bullish stance is tied to Circle's early regulatory advantages under the newly passed U.S. GENIUS Act, which establishes a clear framework for stablecoin issuers.

This regulatory clarity is expected to solidify Circle's leadership as the largest regulated stablecoin issuer in the U.S.

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Why It Matters: Circle's USDC is already widely used across major crypto exchanges such as Coinbase (NASDAQ:COIN) and Binance, providing the company with a strong liquidity network that is difficult for new entrants to replicate.

Bernstein's valuation, based on a 10-year discounted cash flow model, forecasts Circle's revenue to grow at a compound annual growth rate of 47% from 2024 to 2027, driven by increasing USDC supply and wider adoption across financial services and payment platforms.

The analysts expect adjusted EBITDA to grow at 71% annually over the same period.

While Circle's float income-based revenue model remains sensitive to interest rate cuts, Bernstein believes strong growth in USDC supply will offset this pressure.

The firm noted that drawdown phases driven by declining rates could offer attractive entry points for long-term investors.

Bernstein's valuation assumes Circle will maintain a roughly 30% stablecoin market share over the long term, with a target valuation reflecting ~35x 2027 adjusted EBITDA.

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