Editor’s note: The story has been updated with details about the possible identity of the trader betting on Donald Trump.
Data analysis suggests that a single entity may be behind a massive $26 million bet on Donald Trump winning the election on the Polymarket platform.
What Happened: According to a detailed thread by X user Fozzy Diablo on Wednesday, four accounts – Fredi9999, PrincessCaro, Michie, and Theo4 – have been observed making substantial bets on Trump-related outcomes.
The betting patterns of these accounts show striking similarities, with one account typically taking over when another stops, suggesting coordinated activity.
Fozzy Diablo notes, “There is very little overlap within each account, suggesting they are all the same entity.”
The deposit patterns for these accounts are remarkably similar, further supporting this theory. Fozzy Diablo reports, “All flow comes from Kraken in the form of $500,000 or $1 million deposits.”
The motivation behind this substantial investment remains unclear. Fozzy Diablo speculates, “Is the end goal a simple double up? Or is $26 million a cheap way to sway the public opinion in favor of Trump weeks before the election?”
Why It Matters: This unusual betting activity raises questions about the potential manipulation of prediction markets and their influence on public opinion. While prediction markets are often viewed as indicators of public sentiment, this case highlights the possibility of large-scale interventions skewing the perceived odds.
The implications of such a significant bet go beyond mere financial speculation. As Fozzy Diablo points out, “To me there is clearly another play here, I would think there are better proxy bets if you are in favor of Trump. Only way I can see it as a hedge would be if all of this was pro Kamala.”
The user Fredi9999 was already flagged by veteran Polymarket traders on Oct.7 for their heavy Trump-related activity. Polymarket trader Domer noted that Fredi9999 has a remarkable similarity to Elon Musk in being wealthy and tech-savvy.
On Wednesday, Domer revealed attempts to communicate with the trader, which led to a brief and contentious exchange before being blocked. The trader’s comments on the platform and writing style point to a possible French connection, according to the veteran Polymarket trader.
This is not the first time a single bettor has attempted to influence political prediction markets. Domer recalls similar incidents in 2008 and 2012, where large bets were placed on Republican candidates John McCain and Mitt Romney, respectively. However, the scale of Fredi9999’s bets far exceeds these previous examples.
What’s Next: The fallout of the election for the crypto industry will take center stage at Benzinga's Future of Digital Assets event on Nov. 19.
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