Harris Vs. Trump: Vice President, Former President Tied In Swing State, But One Candidate Dominates With Independent Voters

Chris Katje

August 29, 2024

A close head-to-head battle between Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris could come down to who wins more of the seven swing states in the 2024 election.

A new 2024 election poll of the swing states shows a close battle, with one candidate leading several key voter demographics.

What Happened: Harris has been enjoying leads in many 2024 election polls and is seeing momentum since officially being named the Democratic Party nominee at the Democratic National Convention.

A new Emerson College poll of voters in seven swing states shows the two candidates tied with each candidate leading in three states and one state showing a tie.

Here are the poll results:

Arizona: Trump 50%, Harris 47%
Georgia: Harris 49%, Trump 48%
Michigan: Harris 50%, Trump 47%
Nevada: Harris 49%, Trump 48%
North Carolina: Trump 49%, Harris 48%
Pennsylvania: Trump 48%, Harris 48%
Wisconsin: Trump 49%, Harris 48%

"The race between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump continues to be tight, within each state's margin of error," Emerson College Polling Executive Director Spencer Kimball said.

Back in July, Harris led Trump in Arizona, Georgia and Michigan with Trump leading Pennsylvania and the two candidates tied for Wisconsin. Only five states were included in that poll.

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Why It's Important: While the two presidential candidates are tied among all voters in the seven states, there is a stark contrast when looking at several voter demographics.

For example, here is the breakdown of the seven states among Independent voters:

Arizona: Harris 51%, Trump 45%
Georgia: Harris 54%, Trump 38%
Michigan: Harris 46%, Trump 43%
Nevada: Trump 50%, Harris 44%
North Carolina: Harris 48%, Trump 46%
Pennsylvania: Harris 48%, Trump 40%
Wisconsin: Harris 52%, Trump 43%

The vice president leads Trump among Independent voters in six of the seven key swing states, with several of the leads coming with wide margins.

Harris also leads Trump in all seven swing states for the key demographic of voters under 30. The vice president has support of at least 54% among the voter demographic in all seven states and 60% support in five of the seven states.

The vice president leads Trump in the women voter demographic in six of the seven swing states as well.

For the male voter demographic, Trump leads in all seven states.

The seven swing states in the Emerson College poll together represent 87 electoral votes in the 2024 election. All seven of the states above were won by Biden in the 2020 election, with several of them flipped from Trump’s win in 2016.

Other swing state polls have shown similar close battles between the two candidates.

A recent Morning Consult swing state voter poll found the vice president leading 48% to 47% overall in seven key states. The vice president was leading Trump in four of the seven swing states (Arizona, Michigan, Nevada, Wisconsin), tied in one (Georgia) and trailing in two (North Carolina, Pennsylvania).

A new Fox News swing state poll for four of the battleground states showed Harris leading in Arizona, Georgia and Nevada with Trump leading in North Carolina.

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Photos: Shutterstock

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