As former President Donald Trump and his successor Joe Biden run a close race in the 2024 election, the former could have an edge over the latter in a key swing state, based on the results of two separate polls published this week.
Clear Lead But Not Majority: Trump leads Biden by a margin of seven points among likely voters in Arizona, with the former receiving 47% of support compared to the latter’s 40%, according to a telephonic and online survey of voters in Arizona by Rasmussen Reports.
The poll collected responses from likely Arizona voters between June 11 and June 13, with the margin of error of the survey at +/- four percentage points.
Trump’s lead, though exceeding the margin of error, is not rock solid, given that 9% said they would vote for some other candidate and 3% said they were undecided.
Arizona is one of the crucial swing states in the 2024 election. Biden won the state in the 2020 election.
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Key Election Issues: Economy and immigration emerged as the key electoral issues, which apparently explains Biden’s relatively poor showing. The key issues and the percentage of likely voters who consider each as important are as follows:
- Economy: 28%
- Border security: 23%
- Abortion: 15%
- Climate change: 8%
- Violent crime: 7%
- Government corruption: 6%
- Global conflicts and war: 4%
- Education: 3%
Inflation is a major concern for Arizona voters, with 70% indicating that rising prices have significantly changed their spending habits.
Election integrity also remains a concern. Sixty percent are worried about cheating affecting the 2024 election results. Fifty-seven percent said they support a policy of hand-counting ballots and only supplying mail-in ballots to those who request them. Trump’s tax cuts, which are set to expire by January 2025, appear to be a hit in the state, with 36% saying they would be more likely to support a candidate who favors extending the tax cuts. Twenty-two percent said they would be less likely to support such a candidate and 32% said it would not make much difference.
Senate Race: The poll found that Kari Lake received 53% support from likely Republican voters for the Republican primary. Her opponent, Pinal County Sheriff Mark Lamb, was backed by 28% of GOP voters. Additionally, 28% said they would vote for another candidate, and 12% were undecided. Forty-four percent of the respondents said Trump’s backing of Lake swayed their votes toward her and 32% said it did not make much difference.
AARP Poll: A separate poll by the American Association of Retired Persons, Arizona, showed that Trump leads Biden by eight percentage points among Arizona voters ages 18 and older, with the tally at 45%-37%. Independent candidate Robert Kennedy Jr. received the backing of 11% of the respondents.
A bipartisan polling team from Fabrizio Ward and Impact Research conducted the survey on behalf of AARP Arizona. They contacted 1,358 likely Arizona voters.The survey was conducted from May 28 to June 4.
Trump had a larger lead among voters aged 50 and older, with a tally of 49% to 39% in his favor. Among women voters aged 50 and older, the candidates were tied. Biden led among older Hispanic voters, with a margin of 48% to 37%.
“Arizona voters over age 50 are the biggest voting bloc that could tip the scale for any candidate in this election,” said Dana Kennedy, the state director at AARP Arizona.
“If candidates want to win, they should pay attention to the issues that matter to voters over age 50, from protecting Social Security to supporting family caregivers.”
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